Footlab methodology

This page is a technical deep-dive for users who want to understand how the engine works. How Footlab works.

Assumptions and sources

The engine relies on objective data from official sources.

Building the indicators

• Scores are calculated per criterion (form, attack, defense, H2H, Elo, etc.).
• Scores are normalised to remain comparable across all matches.
• A weighting is applied according to the progress of the season.
• The final score is converted into 1/N/2 probabilities.

Extreme probabilities are capped to avoid overconfident readings.

Taking odds into account

Observed odds serve as a market reference for the simulation.

Odds — timing

Odds are not fixed — they evolve in the market up to kick-off.

Footlab does not try to predict these changes — it tracks them transparently.

The moment at which an odds value is observed influences its meaning.

Footlab therefore tracks odds movements over time.

The odds tracked are now those offered by Bet365, the world's leading sports betting operator. This choice ensures a highly liquid and representative market reference, with competitive odds and optimal international coverage.

This source is unique, chosen to ensure consistency across all analyses.

The odds used by the simulation engine are the reference market odds observed before the match.

Tracking odds over time does not constitute a prediction or betting advice.

Footlab Elo — National Teams

The Footlab Elo score is a dynamic index that measures the performance level of each national team over time. Unlike official rankings, it is recalculated after every match by taking several key factors into account:

• The match result: a win, draw or loss determines the direction and magnitude of the adjustment.
• The importance of the fixture: a high-stakes match (knockout stage, qualifier) carries more weight than a friendly.
• The relative level of the opponent: beating a higher-rated team earns more than overcoming a weaker side.
• The match venue: home advantage is taken into account, and matches played on neutral ground are treated without a home bias.
• The international context: the diversity of matchups across confederations is factored in to fairly compare teams from different regions.

This system tracks the real evolution of teams' level, independently of qualification calendars and the biases of official rankings.

Limits and responsibility

Football remains subject to random events that no model can fully anticipate.

Evolution and transparency

Parameters may evolve across seasons as the engine improves.