Spain, 41 games unbeaten: should you back the long odds against La Roja?
By beating Czechia 3-1 on Saturday, Spain extended their streak to 41 games unbeaten, a world record for a national team. Does that mean you should back the long odds against them? Not because the streak "has to" end. Only when the price is wrong.
The facts: 41 games, 31 wins, 10 draws
La Roja's last defeat dates back to a friendly against Colombia (0-1) on 22 March 2024. Since then, Spain have won Euro 2024 and the 2026 World Cup, and have strung together 10 consecutive wins.
The 2025 Nations League final, lost on penalties to Portugal, officially counts as a draw. Counting only competitive matches, some media start from the defeat in Scotland in March 2023 and arrive at a slightly different figure.
Tonight again, the margin was thin: at 2-1, a Czech free-kick goal was ruled out in the 79th minute. Remember that detail, it is at the heart of this article.
The trap: a defeat is never "due"
The streak does not make the next defeat more likely. Believing otherwise is the gambler's fallacy: thinking that after a long run, the opposite outcome becomes "ripe".
A match has no memory. The probability of Spain losing depends on the opponent, the venue, absences and what is at stake. Not on the number of games already won.
If the streak says anything, it is rather the opposite: 41 games without losing prove a very strong team. Betting against them "because it is bound to end" means betting against the best information available.
What variance really says
Even for a dominant team, 41 games unbeaten owe a great deal to luck. If Spain have a probability p of not losing a given match, the probability of stringing together 41 games unbeaten is:
P(41-game streak) = p⁴¹
| Probability of not losing a match | Probability of the streak | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| 80% | 0.01% | 1 in 9,400 |
| 85% | 0.13% | 1 in 780 |
| 88% | 0.53% | 1 in 190 |
| 90% | 1.3% | 1 in 75 |
| 95% | 12% | 1 in 8 |
For a national team of this level, a reasonable assumption puts the risk of defeat between 10 and 15% per match on average, depending on the opponent. At the outset, the current streak therefore had between a 1 in 75 and a 1 in 800 chance of happening.
This is the principle of regression to the mean: an extreme streak combines quality and luck. The quality remains, the luck does not repeat. Spain's real risk of defeat is not 0%, even if their recent record suggests it.
Where value may be hiding
Long odds against Spain only have value if the market underestimates the real probability of an upset. That is the only question that matters.
The hypothesis to test: the "invincible Spain" narrative draws the general public's money onto La Roja. Bookmakers may then shorten Spain's odds beyond their fair value, and lengthen those of the opponent or the draw slightly.
The calculation is simple. The expected value of a bet is:
EV = p × odds − 1
Illustrative example: Spain's opponent is priced at 8.00, an implied probability of 12.5%.
- If your real estimate is 14%, the expected value is +12%: the bet has value.
- If it is 10%, the expected value is -20%: it is a bad bet, even if it comes in.
The draw deserves attention too: in their 41 games, Spain failed to win 10 times, roughly one match in four. The "Spain do not win" bet is often more realistic than a win for the opponent.
The counter-argument: the favourite-longshot bias
On average, long odds are the worst-paying bets on the market. This bias has been documented for decades in horse racing and also shows up in football.
Bettors love big potential payouts and overrate outsiders. Bookmakers know it and concentrate a larger share of their margin on those odds.
The direct consequence: systematically backing every long shot loses more on average than backing favourites. Against Spain as anywhere else, only a quantified gap between your estimate and the odds justifies the bet.
The method: a portfolio, not a bet
Betting against Spain is defensible as a portfolio of small stakes filtered by value, never as a blind system.
- Estimate before looking at the odds. Start from the level of both teams, then adjust: venue, absences, stakes, likely rotation if qualification is already secured.
- Only bet if p × odds exceeds 1 with a safety margin. An estimated expected value of +5% is a reasonable minimum threshold, given the uncertainty of any estimate.
- Stake small and fixed. With a hit rate around 12%, losing 10 bets in a row happens about 28 times in 100. Losing 20 in a row, about 8 times in 100.
- Judge on a sample, not on a single bet. A winning bet validates nothing, and neither does a losing run. The best indicator: regularly getting better odds than the closing odds.
- Record everything. Estimated probability, odds taken, closing odds, result. Without tracking, it is impossible to tell a real edge from luck.
The irony is complete: the variance that gave Spain 41 games also applies to whoever bets against them. That is exactly the gap Footlab measures: its model's probability against the probability implied by the odds.
In summary
Spain's streak is an argument for respecting La Roja, not for betting against them on principle. It hides a share of luck that will not last, but nobody knows when it will end.
The only valid reason to back long odds against Spain: an estimated probability higher than the one implied by the odds. The rest is statistical superstition.
Gambling involves risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and if gambling is becoming a problem, contact the gambling support service in your country.
Sources (in French)
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