Group F World Cup 2026: Netherlands lead on paper, Japan push back on data
Just 0.1 ELO points separate the Netherlands from Japan in the Footlab engine — the tightest gap between two sides in the same group at the 2026 World Cup. Bookmakers price the Dutch as clear favourites, but the Footlab model measures something different: the race for top spot in Group F is genuinely open. With Sweden and Tunisia fighting for the second direct qualification berth, this group rewards careful data analysis before placing a bet.
Group F Overview: Four Teams Through the Footlab Lens
Group F brings together the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. Across the 48 qualified nations in this 12-group, 104-match tournament, these four sides show sharply different ELO profiles. The table below reflects Footlab's proprietary data as of 8 June 2026.
| Team | FIFA Rank | Footlab ELO | ELO Delta | Qualification probability (top 2) | Finish 1st probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 9 | 1681 | 5.31 | ~72% | ~44% |
| Japan | 17 | 1636 | 3.04 | ~68% | ~38% |
| Sweden | 37 | 1510 | -0.60 | ~38% | ~12% |
| Tunisia | 57 | 1488 | -5.00 | ~22% | ~6% |
Probabilities derived from Footlab's proprietary ELO engine. For informational purposes only.