Group I World Cup 2026: Data Analysis — France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
14.1% — that's France's probability of lifting the 2026 World Cup trophy according to Opta's models, making them the clear favourite in Group I. But when our Footlab Elo engine places Senegal at 1640.8 points — just 23.8 behind France's 1664.6 — the Group I World Cup 2026 qualification probabilities tell a far more competitive story. On 16 June at MetLife Stadium, the French face African champions Senegal in what the data identifies as a genuine trap game. Here's what the numbers that bookmakers don't show you are saying.
Group I Overview: The Real Strength of All Four Teams
Group I brings together four nations at very different levels. France are the Elo leaders, but Senegal and Norway (with Erling Haaland) represent genuine threats to the assumed hierarchy. Iraq, absent from our top-tier Elo database, are the group's heavy underdogs.
| Team | Footlab Elo Score | Recent Elo Δ | Qualification Probability (S1 model) | Probability 1st in Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France | 1742 | 2.59 | ~88% | ~62% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 1642 | -1.64 | ~68% | ~24% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 1613 | 1.21 | ~38% | ~11% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 1458 | -5.98 | ~8% | ~3% |
Sources: Footlab Data proprietary Elo engine (calculated 17/04/2026) — probabilities from the Footlab S1 model, for informational purposes only.