Croatia 0-1 Belgium: Does This Result Shift the Group G Odds for World Cup 2026?
A clean sheet against Croatia — a side rated 1,603.3 on the Footlab proprietary Elo engine — and bookmakers still have Belgium priced at -240 to win Group G at the 2026 World Cup. That single number hides a data story worth unpacking. Our model projects Belgium's probability of finishing top of the group at 65%, while the -240 price implies approximately 71%. That gap matters. Let's break it down with the numbers.
Group G at World Cup 2026: Teams and Elo Standings
The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 nations across 12 groups of 4, totalling 104 matches. The top 2 sides from each group advance automatically, while the 8 best third-placed teams also progress — a rule that makes the battle for second place in a lopsided group like Group G particularly significant from a betting markets perspective.
Group G consists of: Belgium (BEL), Egypt (EGY), New Zealand (NZL) and IR Iran (IRN).
| Team | Footlab Elo Score | Recent Delta | Qualification Probability (top 2) | Group Winner Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1655 | 5.00 | ~85% | ~65% |
| Egypt | 1609 | -5.73 | ~53% | ~18% |
| IR Iran | 1613 | 3.23 | ~47% | ~12% |
| New Zealand | 1489 | -3.64 | ~15% | ~5% |
Sources: Footlab proprietary Elo engine (calculated 03/06/2026); probabilities from S1-opportunities projections.