World Cup 2026 Data Analysis: How the Footlab Engine Calculates Match Probabilities
48 teams, 12 groups, 104 matches across the expanded 2026 World Cup — the sheer volume creates more betting markets than any previous tournament. Bookmakers open odds fast, often before accounting for recent form shifts. Spain carries a Footlab Elo of 1768, ahead of Argentina (1743, FIFA rank #1) — a gap that generic "tournament favourite" odds rarely price with precision. The Footlab engine builds an independent probability for each match, compares it to the implied bookmaker probability, and quantifies the edge. This article explains how that process works, which data feeds it, and why FIFA rankings alone are an incomplete predictor of group-stage outcomes.