England vs Croatia — Group L World Cup 2026: 2018 Rematch, What Do the Stats Say?
Croatia knocked England out of the 2018 World Cup semi-finals (2-1 after extra time). Eight years later, both sides land in the same group again — Group L — and the betting markets have already made their choice. But do the odds reflect the actual gap that Footlab's model measures? England's Elo rating stands at 1715, a 56-point advantage over Croatia's 1648. That gap didn't exist in 2018, and it fundamentally shifts how this group should be read.
Group L World Cup 2026: Elo and FIFA Rankings for All Four Teams
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Elo Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1715 | #4 | +3.64 |
| Croatia | 1648 | #13 | +3.69 |
| Ghana | 1419 | #65 | -0.68 |
| Panama | 1515 | #44 | -1.24 |
Group L splits neatly into two tiers. England and Croatia rank among Europe's stronger sides; Ghana and Panama sit more than 200 Elo points below the group leader. In the 2026 format — 48 teams, 12 groups of 4, 104 total matches — the top two qualify automatically, but the 8 best third-placed sides also advance. That rule gives Ghana and Panama a meaningful route through even without finishing second.