Coupe du Monde Major tournament Access : Visitor Change plan
World Cup 2026

England vs Croatia — Group L World Cup 2026: 2018 Rematch, What Do the Stats Say?

Group L World Cup 2026: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama. Footlab Elo ratings, qualification probabilities and betting edge analysed with real data.

England vs Croatia — Group L World Cup 2026: 2018 Rematch, What Do the Stats Say?

Croatia knocked England out of the 2018 World Cup semi-finals (2-1 after extra time). Eight years later, both sides land in the same group again — Group L — and the betting markets have already made their choice. But do the odds reflect the actual gap that Footlab's model measures? England's Elo rating stands at 1715, a 56-point advantage over Croatia's 1648. That gap didn't exist in 2018, and it fundamentally shifts how this group should be read.

Group L World Cup 2026: Elo and FIFA Rankings for All Four Teams

Team Footlab Elo FIFA Rank Elo Trend
England 1715 #4 +3.64
Croatia 1648 #13 +3.69
Ghana 1419 #65 -0.68
Panama 1515 #44 -1.24

Group L splits neatly into two tiers. England and Croatia rank among Europe's stronger sides; Ghana and Panama sit more than 200 Elo points below the group leader. In the 2026 format — 48 teams, 12 groups of 4, 104 total matches — the top two qualify automatically, but the 8 best third-placed sides also advance. That rule gives Ghana and Panama a meaningful route through even without finishing second.

Discovery only

This module is part of the full Footlab analysis.

Unlock with Discovery