France vs Iraq (Group I) — Data Analysis and Probabilities FIFA World Cup 2026
A 257-point Elo gap separates France from Iraq in Group I — one of the widest differentials in the entire 2026 World Cup draw. Footlab's engine rates France at 1,732.2 Elo (#3 FIFA) against Iraq's 1,475.4 (#57 FIFA). Bookmaker odds on heavily one-sided fixtures often carry inflated margins. The Footlab model calculates win probabilities independently, and the gap between those figures and the market lines is where the betting edge lies. Here is what the data shows on France-Iraq and the full Group I structure.
Group I Footlab Elo Ratings — Full Table
Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup brings together four nations at very different levels of global strength. France sits at the top by a substantial Elo margin. Senegal is the only team in the group ranked inside the world's top 15 — making it the closest challenger on paper. Norway, with Erling Haaland at the helm, enters with a solid but noticeably lower Elo rating. Iraq shows the weakest metrics in the group, compounded by a recent negative Elo trend of −5.98 heading into the tournament.
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Elo Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1742 | #3 | 2.59 |
| Senegal | 1642 | #18 | -1.64 |
| Norway | 1613 | #19 | 1.21 |
| Iraq | 1458 | #63 | -5.98 |