Group D World Cup 2026: Balogun fires USA ahead, Footlab recalculates the odds
Folarin Balogun scored the first brace of the 2026 World Cup in Los Angeles. The USA beat Paraguay and sit top of Group D with three points from one game. Beyond the scoreline, the result shifts the qualification probabilities tracked by the Footlab model — and creates measurable gaps between bookmaker implied odds and the engine's recalculated figures.
Group D brings together four teams with sharply different profiles: USA (Footlab Elo 1595, FIFA #16), Turkey (Elo 1582, FIFA #27), Australia (Elo 1566, FIFA #28) and Paraguay (Elo 1506, FIFA #34). The top two qualify directly; the eight best third-placed teams across all 12 groups also advance — which keeps survival scenarios alive for every side heading into matchday 2.