Group I World Cup 2026: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq — What the Footlab Data Shows
257 Elo points separate France from Iraq in Group I — the widest gap between top and bottom in this pool at the 2026 World Cup. That margin tells most of the story before a ball is kicked. Yet Senegal (Elo 1642, FIFA rank #18) sits just 73 Elo points behind France, making the France-Senegal clash the genuine high-stakes match of the group. The Footlab model quantifies qualification probabilities, identifies markets with genuine edge, and tracks recent momentum shifts — details that bookmaker odds rarely capture with the same granularity.
Group I Composition and Elo Rankings
Group I pairs four nations with sharply different profiles. The table below draws on Footlab's proprietary Elo ratings (anchored across the 48 qualified teams) and official FIFA rankings.
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Elo Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1732 | #3 | 2.79 |
| Senegal | 1642 | #18 | -1.63 |
| Norway | 1612 | #19 | 1.24 |
| Iraq | 1458 | #63 | -5.98 |
France leads every metric. Senegal is the only side capable of genuinely testing them. Norway and Iraq contest third place — a position that still carries qualification value in a 48-team tournament where the eight best third-placed sides advance alongside the top two from each of the 12 groups.