World Cup 2026 Groups K and L: What the Data Says About Qualifications
Two groups, eight teams, and Elo gaps that tell a very different story from the odds on the bookmakers' boards. In Group K, Portugal (Footlab Elo: 1710) towers above a group where Uzbekistan sits at 1518 — a 180-point gap that quantifies a probable dominance, though not a certainty across three matches. Group L features England (1718) and Croatia (1645) meeting for the third time in a major tournament since 2018, while Ghana (1419) and Panama (1515) look to cause an upset. The Footlab model calculates qualification probabilities from proprietary Elo ratings — values unavailable anywhere else — to identify where bookmaker odds diverge far enough from probabilistic reality to produce positive expected value.
Groups K and L Overview: Footlab Elo Ratings
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Trend (Δ) | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 1710 | #7 | +2.61 | K |
| Colombia | 1640 | #11 | +4.06 | K |
| Congo DR | 1527 | #41 | -6.70 | K |
| Uzbekistan | 1518 | #60 | -5.29 | K |
| England | 1718 | #4 | +3.58 | L |
| Croatia | 1645 | #13 | +3.74 | L |
| Ghana | 1419 | #65 | -0.70 | L |
| Panamá | 1515 | #44 | -1.43 | L |
Source: Footlab Data proprietary Elo engine. Δ = variation from last official match.