World Cup 2026 Groups K and L: What the Data Says About Qualifications
Two groups, eight teams, and Elo gaps that tell a very different story from the odds on the bookmakers' boards. In Group K, Portugal (Footlab Elo: 1723) towers above a group where Uzbekistan sits at 1523 — a 180-point gap that quantifies a probable dominance, though not a certainty across three matches. Group L features England (1718) and Croatia (1640) meeting for the third time in a major tournament since 2018, while Ghana (1419) and Panama (1515) look to cause an upset. The Footlab model calculates qualification probabilities from proprietary Elo ratings — values unavailable anywhere else — to identify where bookmaker odds diverge far enough from probabilistic reality to produce positive expected value.
Groups K and L Overview: Footlab Elo Ratings
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Trend (Δ) | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 1723 | #5 | +2.59 | K |
| Colombia | 1640 | #11 | +4.06 | K |
| Congo DR | 1527 | #40 | -6.70 | K |
| Uzbekistan | 1523 | #59 | -5.23 | K |
| England | 1718 | #4 | +3.57 | L |
| Croatia | 1640 | #14 | +3.74 | L |
| Ghana | 1419 | #70 | -0.70 | L |
| Panamá | 1515 | #46 | -1.38 | L |
Source: Footlab Data proprietary Elo engine. Δ = variation from last official match.