Netherlands 2-2 Japan, Germany 7-1 Curaçao: What the Post-Match Data Reveals About Groups E and F
Final scores only capture part of what happens on a pitch. Germany cruised while the Netherlands stumbled: three points for the Mannschaft, one for the Oranje on Matchday 1. The gap between expected goals and actual goals adds even more nuance — with direct implications for qualification probabilities and Matchday 2 markets according to Footlab's model.
Groups E and F: Footlab's Elo snapshot before Matchday 2
Group E brings together Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao and Ecuador. Group F lines up Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. Before breaking down the matches, here is where each team stands on Footlab's Elo ratings.
Group E
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Elo Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1659 | #13 | 4.26 |
| Ivory Coast | 1581 | #29 | 3.41 |
| Ecuador | 1584 | #24 | 3.15 |
| Curaçao | 1418 | #80 | 4.24 |
Group F
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Elo Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1683 | #9 | 5.23 |
| Japan | 1636 | #17 | 3.05 |
| Sweden | 1510 | #34 | -0.02 |
| Tunisia | 1468 | #61 | -5.27 |
The Elo gap between Germany (1659) and Curaçao (1418) sits at 239 points — a gulf the 7-1 scoreline reflects in full. In Group F, Japan (1636) rates above both Sweden (1510) and Tunisia (1468) on Footlab's scale, which makes the 2-2 draw earned against the Netherlands worth unpacking properly.