2026 World Cup: Footlab's Elo engine breaks down qualification probabilities group by group
There are 348 Elo points between Spain (Footlab Elo: 1786) and Bosnia & Herzegovina (1433) — the widest gap in this 48-team field. Across 12 groups of four, these differentials translate into qualification probabilities that regularly diverge from bookmaker odds. Footlab's engine recalculates after every final whistle, picking up momentum shifts that the static FIFA rankings miss entirely. Here is how each group's real hierarchy looks heading into Matchday 3, when every point decides who advances.
Footlab Elo Rankings: the top 12 nations at WC 2026
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Trend (Δ last match) | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1786 | #1 | 1.76 | H |
| Argentina | 1739 | #2 | 2.30 | J |
| France | 1743 | #3 | 2.58 | I |
| Morocco | 1721 | #7 | -1.21 | C |
| England | 1718 | #4 | 3.57 | L |
| Portugal | 1723 | #5 | 2.59 | K |
| Netherlands | 1683 | #9 | 5.23 | F |
| Mexico | 1676 | #10 | 3.37 | A |
| Germany | 1659 | #13 | 4.26 | E |
| Brazil | 1646 | #6 | 5.73 | C |
| Croatia | 1640 | #14 | 3.74 | L |
| Japan | 1636 | #17 | 3.05 | F |