Spain vs Cape Verde & Belgium vs Egypt: World Cup 2026 Value Odds Analysis
Spain priced at -1190 against Cape Verde. That translates to an implied probability above 92% — bookmakers have essentially ruled the match over before kick-off. When a favourite is that heavily backed on the 1X2 market, secondary markets mechanically become underpriced. Footlab's Elo engine rates Spain at 1768 and Cape Verde at 1466, a gap of over 300 points that allows precise quantification of the real edge — and where expected value (EV) turns positive. The same logic applies to Belgium vs Egypt in Group G, where Egypt (Elo 1609, FIFA #24) arrive with a sharply negative recent trend (Δ -5.73) that the market appears to underweight.
Groups H & G: Squads and Footlab Elo Data
Group H pairs Spain with Cape Verde, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. Group G lines up Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand and Iran. Below are the Footlab proprietary ratings for the four teams involved in Matchday 1.
Group H — Spain, Cape Verde, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Trend (Δ) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1768 | #2 | 1.97 |
| Uruguay | 1578 | #20 | 0.94 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1477 | #58 | 1.63 |
| Cape Verde | 1466 | #64 | 3.75 |
Group G — Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Trend (Δ) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1655 | #8 | 5.00 |
| Iran | 1613 | #22 | 3.23 |
| Egypt | 1609 | #24 | -5.73 |
| New Zealand | 1489 | #86 | -3.64 |