USA vs Paraguay Group D World Cup 2026: Data Analysis and EV by Footlab
One hundred Elo points separate the United States from Paraguay according to the Footlab engine — a gap that rarely shows up in bookmaker odds, where the co-host status inflates American win probabilities beyond what the numbers support. Group D of the 2026 World Cup brings together Australia, the United States, Paraguay, and Turkey: four nations with sharply different profiles, and a betting market shaped largely by the home-nation narrative. The Footlab model measures the distance between that narrative and the actual data.
Group D World Cup 2026: Elo and FIFA Rankings at a Glance
| Team | Footlab Elo | FIFA Rank | Elo Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 1561 | #31 | 3.68 |
| United States | 1596 | #16 | -4.26 |
| Australia | 1570 | #26 | -0.47 |
| Paraguay | 1506 | #33 | 4.34 |